Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Genimous Technology Co., Ltd. (000676.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.26 - $0.33$0.30
Multi-Stage$0.46 - $0.52$0.49
Blended Fair Value$0.39
Current Price$9.82
Upside-95.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-34.29%-13.02%0.000.000.010.020.050.030.040.010.000.01
YoY Growth---12.74%-36.62%-59.63%-64.69%55.38%-10.19%211.84%279.03%-66.34%-43.35%
Dividend Yield--0.05%0.06%0.11%0.26%0.94%0.46%0.41%0.12%0.02%0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)176.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)172.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.3422.0913.25
Cash Retained (M)172.95172.95172.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.34-22.09-13.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)137.61150.87159.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,252.911,252.911,252.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate-23.15%-22.15%-21.15%
Fair Value$0.26$0.30$0.33
Upside / Downside-97.31%-96.92%-96.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)176.72137.56107.0983.3664.8950.5252.03
Payout Ratio2.13%19.70%37.28%54.85%72.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.7627.1039.9245.7347.0045.4748.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.64%9.64%9.64%
Growth Rate-23.15%-22.15%-21.15%
Year 1 PV (M)24.4024.7225.04
Year 2 PV (M)32.3633.2134.06
Year 3 PV (M)33.3734.6936.04
Year 4 PV (M)30.8832.5234.22
Year 5 PV (M)26.9028.6930.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)428.54457.16487.29
Equity Value (M)576.45610.99647.24
Shares Outstanding (M)1,252.911,252.911,252.91
Fair Value$0.46$0.49$0.52
Upside / Downside-95.31%-95.03%-94.74%

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