Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhaojin International Gold Co., Ltd. (000506.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Other Precious MetalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.18 - $0.23$0.21
Multi-Stage$0.35 - $0.39$0.37
Blended Fair Value$0.29
Current Price$10.87
Upside-97.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-38.78%-18.34%0.000.010.040.070.040.050.040.040.030.01
YoY Growth---59.65%-69.95%-45.57%82.51%-28.60%27.93%18.02%8.97%229.72%-71.74%
Dividend Yield--0.08%0.27%0.75%2.41%1.80%1.98%1.11%0.79%0.31%0.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)40.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.965.603.36
Cash Retained (M)40.8040.8040.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.96-5.60-3.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)31.8435.2037.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)928.14928.14928.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.04
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate-10.35%-9.35%-8.35%
Fair Value$0.18$0.21$0.23
Upside / Downside-98.36%-98.09%-97.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.8240.6336.8333.3830.2627.4328.25
Payout Ratio8.96%25.17%41.37%57.58%73.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.0110.2215.2419.2222.3324.6926.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.11%9.11%9.11%
Growth Rate-10.35%-9.35%-8.35%
Year 1 PV (M)9.279.379.47
Year 2 PV (M)12.5212.8013.08
Year 3 PV (M)14.3214.8015.29
Year 4 PV (M)15.0715.7616.46
Year 5 PV (M)15.1115.9716.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)261.91276.84292.45
Equity Value (M)328.18345.53363.64
Shares Outstanding (M)928.14928.14928.14
Fair Value$0.35$0.37$0.39
Upside / Downside-96.75%-96.58%-96.40%

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