Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shandong Shengli Co., Ltd. (000407.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.34 - $2.08$1.68
Multi-Stage$3.03 - $3.33$3.18
Blended Fair Value$2.43
Current Price$3.49
Upside-30.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.84%0.00%0.160.150.180.160.160.120.130.060.080.13
YoY Growth--6.78%-14.59%8.13%5.72%33.55%-7.97%94.66%-22.13%-35.89%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.01%4.64%4.71%4.24%3.73%3.23%2.59%1.09%0.75%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)127.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)51.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)76.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.5215.959.57
Cash Retained (M)76.4076.4076.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.52-15.95-9.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.8860.4566.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)879.86879.86879.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.13
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.34$1.68$2.08
Upside / Downside-61.50%-51.77%-40.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)127.59126.32125.05123.80122.56121.34124.98
Payout Ratio40.12%50.10%60.07%70.05%80.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)51.1963.2875.1286.7298.08109.20115.60

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)58.8459.4460.04
Year 2 PV (M)64.9566.2867.62
Year 3 PV (M)69.7171.8774.07
Year 4 PV (M)73.3176.3579.48
Year 5 PV (M)75.9079.8583.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,320.562,441.402,567.22
Equity Value (M)2,663.262,795.182,932.39
Shares Outstanding (M)879.86879.86879.86
Fair Value$3.03$3.18$3.33
Upside / Downside-13.27%-8.97%-4.50%

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