Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Xinjiang International Industry Co.,Ltd (000159.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.65 - $1.02$0.82
Multi-Stage$1.55 - $1.71$1.63
Blended Fair Value$1.22
Current Price$5.68
Upside-78.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.42%-5.01%0.070.040.060.080.080.080.050.110.100.12
YoY Growth--71.48%-27.96%-24.12%-0.78%0.09%72.75%-59.85%8.92%-10.50%-4.93%
Dividend Yield--1.38%0.74%0.78%1.30%1.33%1.57%0.44%2.48%1.05%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.40
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.684.182.51
Cash Retained (M)8.648.648.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.68-4.18-2.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.964.466.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)480.93480.93480.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.65$0.82$1.02
Upside / Downside-88.49%-85.54%-82.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.4033.0732.7432.4132.0931.7732.72
Payout Ratio74.14%77.31%80.49%83.66%86.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.7725.5726.3527.1127.8628.5930.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.33%6.33%6.33%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)23.8024.0524.29
Year 2 PV (M)22.8423.3123.78
Year 3 PV (M)21.8822.5623.25
Year 4 PV (M)20.9321.8022.69
Year 5 PV (M)20.0021.0422.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)636.59669.73704.25
Equity Value (M)746.04782.48820.38
Shares Outstanding (M)480.93480.93480.93
Fair Value$1.55$1.63$1.71
Upside / Downside-72.69%-71.36%-69.97%

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