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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Fengyuan Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (000153.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20.01 - $48.70$45.64
Multi-Stage$7.20 - $7.87$7.53
Blended Fair Value$26.58
Current Price$6.46
Upside311.49%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.90%8.47%0.160.070.070.060.080.110.070.070.070.07
YoY Growth--117.31%6.40%18.78%-31.57%-25.72%63.26%-7.94%10.20%-0.39%-2.13%
Dividend Yield--2.52%1.25%0.99%0.83%1.62%2.16%1.35%1.23%0.54%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.7614.238.54
Cash Retained (M)50.3050.3050.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.76-14.23-8.54
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.5436.0841.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.80464.80464.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.210.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20.01$45.64$48.70
Upside / Downside209.77%606.46%653.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.82121.21129.09137.48146.42155.94160.62
Payout Ratio55.80%62.64%69.48%76.32%83.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.5175.9389.70104.93121.76140.34148.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70.6171.2871.94
Year 2 PV (M)77.5679.0380.52
Year 3 PV (M)84.3686.7989.25
Year 4 PV (M)91.0394.5398.13
Year 5 PV (M)97.56102.28107.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,923.583,064.793,211.40
Equity Value (M)3,344.703,498.693,658.43
Shares Outstanding (M)464.80464.80464.80
Fair Value$7.20$7.53$7.87
Upside / Downside11.39%16.52%21.84%

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