Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

CITIC Offshore Helicopter Co., Ltd. (000099.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.91 - $4.07$3.49
Multi-Stage$2.98 - $3.24$3.11
Blended Fair Value$3.30
Current Price$22.15
Upside-85.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.93%-1.39%0.080.080.100.090.090.090.080.060.110.12
YoY Growth--9.27%-23.28%10.01%-0.47%3.96%4.90%49.19%-51.52%-1.35%21.76%
Dividend Yield--0.35%0.44%1.27%1.30%1.26%1.43%1.01%0.64%0.96%0.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)352.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)97.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)255.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)70.6044.1226.47
Cash Retained (M)255.94255.94255.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-70.60-44.12-26.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)185.34211.82229.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)775.95775.95775.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate15.21%15.21%15.21%
Growth Rate2.42%3.42%4.42%
Fair Value$2.91$3.49$4.07
Upside / Downside-86.85%-84.24%-81.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)352.99365.05377.52390.42403.76417.56430.09
Payout Ratio27.49%39.99%52.50%65.00%77.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)97.05146.00198.18253.76312.91375.80397.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate15.21%15.21%15.21%
Growth Rate2.42%3.42%4.42%
Year 1 PV (M)125.50126.73127.95
Year 2 PV (M)146.44149.31152.21
Year 3 PV (M)161.18165.95170.81
Year 4 PV (M)170.84177.62184.59
Year 5 PV (M)176.37185.16194.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,529.341,605.471,684.61
Equity Value (M)2,309.682,410.232,514.45
Shares Outstanding (M)775.95775.95775.95
Fair Value$2.98$3.11$3.24
Upside / Downside-86.56%-85.98%-85.37%

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