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Definitive Analysis

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Norinco International Cooperation Ltd. (000065.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$63.55 - $137.80$129.14
Multi-Stage$20.77 - $22.74$21.73
Blended Fair Value$75.44
Current Price$10.88
Upside593.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.67%33.04%0.260.060.060.070.060.050.050.040.020.02
YoY Growth--364.01%1.48%-17.34%6.52%15.00%0.00%33.33%110.35%-4.74%36.40%
Dividend Yield--2.52%0.48%0.36%0.77%0.74%0.85%0.50%0.39%0.09%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)776.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)270.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)506.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)155.3397.0858.25
Cash Retained (M)506.34506.34506.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-155.33-97.08-58.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)351.01409.26448.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.841,120.841,120.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.550.610.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$63.55$129.14$137.80
Upside / Downside484.13%1,086.95%1,166.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)776.64827.12880.88938.14999.121,064.061,095.99
Payout Ratio34.80%45.84%56.88%67.92%78.96%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)270.30379.18501.07637.20788.91957.661,013.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)352.96356.30359.65
Year 2 PV (M)434.16442.43450.78
Year 3 PV (M)513.94528.69543.73
Year 4 PV (M)592.30615.08638.51
Year 5 PV (M)669.27701.60735.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,715.2421,715.7922,754.64
Equity Value (M)23,277.8724,359.9025,482.46
Shares Outstanding (M)1,120.841,120.841,120.84
Fair Value$20.77$21.73$22.74
Upside / Downside90.88%99.76%108.96%

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