Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China National Accord Medicines Corporation Ltd. (000028.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DistributionSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$81.38 - $190.76$178.77
Multi-Stage$28.70 - $31.38$30.02
Blended Fair Value$104.39
Current Price$25.00
Upside317.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.66%24.91%1.080.620.460.620.460.310.230.250.240.13
YoY Growth--76.28%33.33%-25.00%33.33%50.00%33.33%-9.09%4.92%85.67%11.11%
Dividend Yield--4.24%1.98%1.36%2.36%1.42%1.00%0.58%0.55%0.42%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)534.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)353.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)180.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.8166.7640.06
Cash Retained (M)180.71180.71180.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.81-66.76-40.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.90113.95140.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)556.78556.78556.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.130.200.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.130.200.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.770.840.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$81.38$178.77$190.76
Upside / Downside225.52%615.09%663.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)534.07568.78605.76645.13687.06731.72753.67
Payout Ratio66.16%70.93%75.70%80.47%85.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)353.36403.44458.55519.11585.60658.55697.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)375.28378.84382.40
Year 2 PV (M)396.76404.32411.95
Year 3 PV (M)417.81429.80442.03
Year 4 PV (M)438.43455.29472.63
Year 5 PV (M)458.63480.78503.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,892.2814,563.2815,259.96
Equity Value (M)15,979.1916,712.3117,472.74
Shares Outstanding (M)556.78556.78556.78
Fair Value$28.70$30.02$31.38
Upside / Downside14.80%20.06%25.53%

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