Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

UP Global Sourcing Holdings plc (UPGS.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.02 - $56.05$19.10
Multi-Stage$5.76 - $6.30$6.03
Blended Fair Value$12.57
Current Price$1.25
Upside905.21%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS11.97%0.00%0.070.050.050.030.030.040.040.000.000.00
YoY Growth--29.50%9.55%91.11%-4.98%-31.68%-5.98%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.65%4.96%2.46%3.39%3.41%10.29%2.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.993.121.87
Cash Retained (M)18.7018.7018.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.99-3.12-1.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.7115.5816.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)88.5588.5588.55
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.180.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.02$19.10$56.05
Upside / Downside701.24%1,428.04%4,384.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24.9626.5828.3130.1532.1134.1935.22
Payout Ratio25.06%38.05%51.04%64.03%77.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.2610.1114.4519.3024.7330.7732.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)9.299.389.46
Year 2 PV (M)12.1812.4112.65
Year 3 PV (M)14.9515.3715.81
Year 4 PV (M)17.5818.2618.95
Year 5 PV (M)20.0921.0622.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)436.35457.42479.31
Equity Value (M)510.44533.91558.26
Shares Outstanding (M)88.5588.5588.55
Fair Value$5.76$6.03$6.30
Upside / Downside361.17%382.38%404.37%

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