Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $306.78 - $813.81 | $469.10 |
| Multi-Stage | $208.90 - $228.30 | $218.43 |
| Blended Fair Value | $343.77 | |
| Current Price | $411.65 | |
| Upside | -16.49% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 13.03% | 25.46% | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.45 | 1.67 | 1.30 | 1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.04% | 0.03% | -2.03% | 46.86% | 28.13% | 10.26% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -100.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.58% | 1.08% | 1.65% | 0.83% | 0.56% | 0.78% | 1.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 791.81 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 157.27 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 634.54 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 158.36 | 98.98 | 59.39 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 634.54 | 634.54 | 634.54 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -158.36 | -98.98 | -59.39 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 476.18 | 535.57 | 575.16 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 60.54 | 60.54 | 60.54 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 7.87 | 8.85 | 9.50 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.60 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 7.87 | 8.85 | 9.50 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 10.46 | 11.44 | 12.10 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $306.78 | $469.10 | $813.81 |
| Upside / Downside | -25.47% | 13.96% | 97.70% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 791.81 | 843.28 | 898.09 | 956.47 | 1,018.64 | 1,084.85 | 1,117.40 |
| Payout Ratio | 19.86% | 33.89% | 47.92% | 61.94% | 75.97% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 157.27 | 285.78 | 430.34 | 592.48 | 773.88 | 976.36 | 1,033.59 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 259.49 | 261.95 | 264.41 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 354.80 | 361.56 | 368.38 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 443.54 | 456.27 | 469.25 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 526.04 | 546.27 | 567.08 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 602.62 | 631.73 | 661.95 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 10,461.44 | 10,966.73 | 11,491.36 |
| Equity Value (M) | 12,647.93 | 13,224.51 | 13,822.42 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 60.54 | 60.54 | 60.54 |
| Fair Value | $208.90 | $218.43 | $228.30 |
| Upside / Downside | -49.25% | -46.94% | -44.54% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0R28.L | Newmont Corporation | 2.49% | $1.01 | 15.53% |
| ETR | Entergy Corporation | 2.49% | $2.34 | 57.35% |
| NKE | NIKE, Inc. | 2.49% | $1.58 | 80.59% |
| OTTR | Otter Tail Corporation | 2.49% | $2.03 | 30.69% |
| FHN | First Horizon Corporation | 2.48% | $0.60 | 34.42% |
| PWP | Perella Weinberg Partners | 2.48% | $0.44 | 69.65% |
| SCS | Steelcase Inc. | 2.48% | $0.40 | 50.05% |
| PBI | Pitney Bowes Inc. | 2.46% | $0.25 | 61.37% |
| RBCAA | Republic Bancorp, Inc. | 2.45% | $1.67 | 25.85% |
| SRCE | 1st Source Corporation | 2.45% | $1.53 | 25.20% |
| TRMK | Trustmark Corporation | 2.45% | $0.96 | 26.11% |
| VOYA | Voya Financial, Inc. | 2.45% | $1.86 | 29.46% |
| AWK | American Water Works Company, Inc. | 2.44% | $3.18 | 55.85% |
| LSTR | Landstar System, Inc. | 2.44% | $3.58 | 90.21% |
| NGL | NGL Energy Partners LP | 2.44% | $0.24 | 24.52% |
| TCFC | The Community Financial Corporation | 2.44% | $0.66 | 12.72% |
| CADE | Cadence Bank | 2.43% | $1.05 | 37.49% |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | 2.43% | $5.04 | 48.70% |
| MBCN | Middlefield Banc Corp. | 2.43% | $0.83 | 42.36% |
| 0L7G.L | Snap-on Incorporated | 2.42% | $8.43 | 44.15% |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works Inc. | 2.42% | $6.04 | 58.20% |
| MOFG | MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc. | 2.40% | $0.92 | 32.44% |
| FFIN | First Financial Bankshares, Inc. | 2.39% | $0.72 | 42.45% |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | 2.38% | $6.03 | 59.30% |
| CAL | Caleres, Inc. | 2.38% | $0.29 | 46.21% |
| ABM | ABM Industries Incorporated | 2.37% | $1.01 | 54.79% |
| FUNC | First United Corporation | 2.36% | $0.88 | 22.87% |
| HON | Honeywell International Inc. | 2.36% | $4.63 | 48.21% |
| RILYK | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.50% Senior Notes Due 2026 | 2.36% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| CDW | CDW Corporation | 2.35% | $3.14 | 39.31% |
| CHMG | Chemung Financial Corporation | 2.35% | $1.28 | 46.47% |
| LZB | La-Z-Boy Incorporated | 2.35% | $0.88 | 40.20% |
| PKG | Packaging Corporation of America | 2.35% | $4.97 | 50.31% |
| UNP | Union Pacific Corporation | 2.35% | $5.44 | 45.77% |
| 0K91.L | Northern Trust Corporation | 2.34% | $3.20 | 35.68% |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | 2.33% | $7.07 | 60.14% |
| MGEE | MGE Energy, Inc. | 2.32% | $1.82 | 49.49% |
| MZTI | The Marzetti Company | 2.32% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| UNM | Unum Group | 2.32% | $1.79 | 33.52% |
| RILYM | B. Riley Financial, Inc. - 6.37 | 2.31% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| RILYO | B. Riley Financial, Inc. - 6.75 | 2.31% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| HONIV | Honeywell International Inc. Common Stock Ex Distribution When Issued | 2.30% | $4.63 | 48.21% |
| PGR | The Progressive Corporation | 2.30% | $4.88 | 26.80% |
| WNEB | Western New England Bancorp, Inc. | 2.30% | $0.28 | 43.00% |
| 0R23.L | Halliburton Company | 2.29% | $0.68 | 44.61% |
| ADS | Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.29% | $1.30 | 21.08% |
| HLNE | Hamilton Lane Incorporated | 2.29% | $3.13 | 74.09% |
| BSVN | Bank7 Corp. | 2.28% | $0.94 | 20.81% |
| MCBC | Macatawa Bank Corporation | 2.28% | $0.34 | 28.37% |
| BRKL | Brookline Bancorp, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.54 | 61.06% |