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Definitive Analysis

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Molson Coors Canada Inc. (TPX-B.TO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.68 - $128.20$94.63
Multi-Stage$125.93 - $138.42$132.05
Blended Fair Value$113.34
Current Price$60.21
Upside88.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.63%2.54%1.701.741.550.700.642.051.631.740.190.38
YoY Growth---2.49%12.82%119.86%10.38%-68.87%25.45%-6.52%815.38%-50.00%-71.20%
Dividend Yield--2.82%2.58%2.99%1.30%1.23%5.10%2.59%2.23%0.19%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,038.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)373.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)664.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)207.70129.8177.89
Cash Retained (M)664.92664.92664.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-207.70-129.81-77.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)457.21535.10587.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)206.70206.70206.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.212.592.84
LTM Dividend per Share1.811.811.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.212.592.84
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.024.404.65
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Fair Value$70.68$94.63$128.20
Upside / Downside17.39%57.16%112.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,038.511,054.471,070.671,087.111,103.821,120.771,154.40
Payout Ratio35.97%46.78%57.58%68.39%79.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)373.60493.27616.54743.47874.161,008.701,067.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.25%6.25%6.25%
Growth Rate0.54%1.54%2.54%
Year 1 PV (M)459.67464.24468.81
Year 2 PV (M)535.40546.10556.91
Year 3 PV (M)601.65619.78638.27
Year 4 PV (M)659.22685.84713.26
Year 5 PV (M)708.85744.81782.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,064.4924,234.6125,451.75
Equity Value (M)26,029.2627,295.3828,611.21
Shares Outstanding (M)206.70206.70206.70
Fair Value$125.93$132.05$138.42
Upside / Downside109.15%119.32%129.89%

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