DDM Analysis: TMRP.TA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.25 - $2.97	$2.62
Multi-Stage	$4.82 - $5.32	$5.07
Blended Fair Value	$3.84
Current Price	$12.24
Upside	-68.59%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-9.71%	-7.89%	0.27	0.22	0.20	0.08	0.00	0.45	0.80	0.55	1.24	0.84
YoY Growth	-	-	20.00%	11.11%	157.14%	0.00%	-100.00%	-43.94%	45.34%	-55.83%	47.56%	37.92%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.33%	3.47%	7.24%	2.66%	0.00%	85.91%	18.86%	11.05%	20.02%	14.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	52.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	27.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25.74

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	10.55	6.59	3.96
Cash Retained (M)	25.74	25.74	25.74
(-) Cash Required (M)	-10.55	-6.59	-3.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)	15.19	19.15	21.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	89.41	89.41	89.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.21	0.24
LTM Dividend per Share	0.30	0.30	0.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.17	0.21	0.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.47	0.52	0.55
WACC / Discount Rate	9.04%	9.04%	9.04%
Growth Rate	-9.89%	-8.89%	-7.89%
Fair Value	$2.25	$2.62	$2.97
Upside / Downside	-81.65%	-78.57%	-75.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	52.74	48.05	43.77	39.88	36.33	33.10	34.10
Payout Ratio	51.20%	58.96%	66.72%	74.48%	82.24%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	27.00	28.33	29.21	29.70	29.88	29.79	31.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.04%	9.04%	9.04%
Growth Rate	-9.89%	-8.89%	-7.89%
Year 1 PV (M)	25.69	25.98	26.27
Year 2 PV (M)	24.03	24.57	25.11
Year 3 PV (M)	22.17	22.91	23.68
Year 4 PV (M)	20.23	21.14	22.08
Year 5 PV (M)	18.29	19.33	20.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)	320.83	339.03	358.05
Equity Value (M)	431.24	452.96	475.60
Shares Outstanding (M)	89.41	89.41	89.41
Fair Value	$4.82	$5.07	$5.32
Upside / Downside	-60.60%	-58.61%	-56.54%

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Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP.TA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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