Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Türk Hava Yollari Anonim Ortakligi (THYAO.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.19 - $18.75$15.93
Multi-Stage$19.61 - $21.56$20.57
Blended Fair Value$18.25
Current Price$7.45
Upside144.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,740.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,517.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)548.00342.50205.50
Cash Retained (M)2,517.002,517.002,517.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-548.00-342.50-205.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,969.002,174.502,311.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,381.651,381.651,381.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.431.571.67
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.431.571.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.591.741.83
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.19$15.93$18.75
Upside / Downside77.09%113.81%151.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,740.002,712.602,685.472,658.622,632.032,605.712,683.88
Payout Ratio8.14%24.51%40.88%57.26%73.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.00664.881,097.911,522.211,937.912,345.142,482.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.78%9.78%9.78%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)599.51605.62611.74
Year 2 PV (M)892.61910.92929.42
Year 3 PV (M)1,115.881,150.391,185.60
Year 4 PV (M)1,280.931,334.021,388.74
Year 5 PV (M)1,397.691,470.471,546.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)21,807.2822,942.8424,125.21
Equity Value (M)27,093.9028,414.2629,786.97
Shares Outstanding (M)1,381.651,381.651,381.65
Fair Value$19.61$20.57$21.56
Upside / Downside163.22%176.05%189.38%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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