Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Teck Resources Limited (TECK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18.46 - $26.78$22.49
Multi-Stage$28.36 - $31.15$29.73
Blended Fair Value$26.11
Current Price$61.09
Upside-57.26%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.87%-0.08%1.030.531.060.210.210.220.340.690.120.75
YoY Growth--93.96%-50.19%401.89%0.00%-4.50%-35.47%-50.00%493.10%-84.49%-27.80%
Dividend Yield--1.96%0.85%2.15%0.42%0.88%2.08%1.09%2.09%0.40%7.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,256.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)248.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,008.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)251.20157.0094.20
Cash Retained (M)1,008.001,008.001,008.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-251.20-157.00-94.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)756.80851.00913.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)501.08501.08501.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.511.701.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.511.701.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.012.192.32
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-1.47%-0.47%0.53%
Fair Value$18.46$22.49$26.78
Upside / Downside-69.79%-63.18%-56.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,256.001,250.091,244.201,238.341,232.511,226.711,263.51
Payout Ratio19.75%33.80%47.85%61.90%75.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)248.00422.48595.31766.51936.081,104.041,168.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.23%9.23%9.23%
Growth Rate-1.47%-0.47%0.53%
Year 1 PV (M)382.88386.77390.65
Year 2 PV (M)488.94498.92508.99
Year 3 PV (M)570.54588.09605.99
Year 4 PV (M)631.44657.47684.30
Year 5 PV (M)674.93709.89746.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,460.7312,054.2412,672.10
Equity Value (M)14,209.4714,895.3715,608.30
Shares Outstanding (M)501.08501.08501.08
Fair Value$28.36$29.73$31.15
Upside / Downside-53.58%-51.34%-49.01%

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