DDM Analysis: STX

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$78.59 - $125.82	$99.99
Multi-Stage	$528.48 - $585.20	$556.26
Blended Fair Value	$328.12
Current Price	$252.79
Upside	29.80%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-2.27%	-1.01%	2.74	2.67	2.65	2.78	2.96	3.07	3.25	3.31	2.56	3.32
YoY Growth	-	-	2.56%	0.52%	-4.59%	-6.01%	-3.57%	-5.61%	-1.79%	29.41%	-22.83%	9.49%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.93%	2.45%	4.03%	5.23%	3.51%	6.30%	6.84%	6.99%	7.71%	8.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,713.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	606.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,107.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	342.60	214.13	128.48
Cash Retained (M)	1,107.00	1,107.00	1,107.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-342.60	-214.13	-128.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)	764.40	892.88	978.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	219.25	219.25	219.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.49	4.07	4.46
LTM Dividend per Share	2.76	2.76	2.76
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.49	4.07	4.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend	6.25	6.84	7.23
WACC / Discount Rate	3.34%	3.34%	3.34%
Growth Rate	-4.27%	-3.27%	-2.27%
Fair Value	$78.59	$99.99	$125.82
Upside / Downside	-68.91%	-60.45%	-50.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,713.00	1,656.98	1,602.80	1,550.38	1,499.68	1,450.64	1,494.16
Payout Ratio	35.38%	46.30%	57.23%	68.15%	79.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	606.00	767.20	917.22	1,056.60	1,185.88	1,305.58	1,382.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	3.34%	3.34%	3.34%
Growth Rate	-4.27%	-3.27%	-2.27%
Year 1 PV (M)	734.71	742.38	750.06
Year 2 PV (M)	841.16	858.83	876.68
Year 3 PV (M)	927.94	957.33	987.33
Year 4 PV (M)	997.37	1,039.70	1,083.37
Year 5 PV (M)	1,051.53	1,107.61	1,166.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)	111,316.33	117,253.16	123,440.63
Equity Value (M)	115,869.04	121,959.01	128,304.12
Shares Outstanding (M)	219.25	219.25	219.25
Fair Value	$528.48	$556.26	$585.20
Upside / Downside	109.06%	120.05%	131.49%

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0R28.L	Newmont Corporation	2.49%	$1.01	15.53%
ETR	Entergy Corporation	2.49%	$2.34	57.35%
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PBI	Pitney Bowes Inc.	2.46%	$0.25	61.37%
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SRCE	1st Source Corporation	2.45%	$1.53	25.20%
TRMK	Trustmark Corporation	2.45%	$0.96	26.11%
VOYA	Voya Financial, Inc.	2.45%	$1.86	29.46%
AWK	American Water Works Company, Inc.	2.44%	$3.18	55.85%
LSTR	Landstar System, Inc.	2.44%	$3.58	90.21%
NGL	NGL Energy Partners LP	2.44%	$0.24	24.52%
TCFC	The Community Financial Corporation	2.44%	$0.66	12.72%
CADE	Cadence Bank	2.43%	$1.05	37.49%
JNJ	Johnson & Johnson	2.43%	$5.04	48.70%
MBCN	Middlefield Banc Corp.	2.43%	$0.83	42.36%
0L7G.L	Snap-on Incorporated	2.42%	$8.43	44.15%
ITW	Illinois Tool Works Inc.	2.42%	$6.04	58.20%
MOFG	MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc.	2.40%	$0.92	32.44%
FFIN	First Financial Bankshares, Inc.	2.39%	$0.72	42.45%
ADP	Automatic Data Processing, Inc.	2.38%	$6.03	59.30%
CAL	Caleres, Inc.	2.38%	$0.29	46.21%
ABM	ABM Industries Incorporated	2.37%	$1.01	54.79%
FUNC	First United Corporation	2.36%	$0.88	22.87%
HON	Honeywell International Inc.	2.36%	$4.63	48.21%
RILYK	B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.50% Senior Notes Due 2026	2.36%	$0.58	56.91%
CDW	CDW Corporation	2.35%	$3.14	39.31%
CHMG	Chemung Financial Corporation	2.35%	$1.28	46.47%
LZB	La-Z-Boy Incorporated	2.35%	$0.88	40.20%
PKG	Packaging Corporation of America	2.35%	$4.97	50.31%
UNP	Union Pacific Corporation	2.35%	$5.44	45.77%
0K91.L	Northern Trust Corporation	2.34%	$3.20	35.68%
MCD	McDonald's Corporation	2.33%	$7.07	60.14%
MGEE	MGE Energy, Inc.	2.32%	$1.82	49.49%
MZTI	The Marzetti Company	2.32%	$3.82	61.80%
UNM	Unum Group	2.32%	$1.79	33.52%
RILYM	B. Riley Financial, Inc. - 6.37	2.31%	$0.58	56.91%
RILYO	B. Riley Financial, Inc. - 6.75	2.31%	$0.58	56.91%
HONIV	Honeywell International Inc. Common Stock Ex Distribution When Issued	2.30%	$4.63	48.21%
PGR	The Progressive Corporation	2.30%	$4.88	26.80%
WNEB	Western New England Bancorp, Inc.	2.30%	$0.28	43.00%
0R23.L	Halliburton Company	2.29%	$0.68	44.61%
ADS	Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.	2.29%	$1.30	21.08%
HLNE	Hamilton Lane Incorporated	2.29%	$3.13	74.09%
BSVN	Bank7 Corp.	2.28%	$0.94	20.81%
MCBC	Macatawa Bank Corporation	2.28%	$0.34	28.37%
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Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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