Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk (SGER.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$171.32 - $267.25$215.55
Multi-Stage$406.70 - $447.84$426.87
Blended Fair Value$321.21
Current Price$330.00
Upside-2.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%7.8417.152.141.560.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---54.29%702.32%36.85%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.48%2.78%1.78%0.55%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)279,547.04
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)128,926.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)150,620.32
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)55,909.4134,943.3820,966.03
Cash Retained (M)150,620.32150,620.32150,620.32
(-) Cash Required (M)-55,909.41-34,943.38-20,966.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)94,710.91115,676.94129,654.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15,586.9115,586.9115,586.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.087.428.32
LTM Dividend per Share8.278.278.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.087.428.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend14.3515.6916.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$171.32$215.55$267.25
Upside / Downside-48.09%-34.68%-19.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)279,547.04276,751.57273,984.05271,244.21268,531.77265,846.45273,821.84
Payout Ratio46.12%54.90%63.67%72.45%81.22%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)128,926.72151,925.24174,450.90196,510.86218,112.17239,261.80253,285.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.21%6.21%6.21%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)141,600.72143,045.63144,490.53
Year 2 PV (M)151,545.94154,654.49157,794.60
Year 3 PV (M)159,108.42164,028.96169,049.91
Year 4 PV (M)164,597.05171,418.83178,450.49
Year 5 PV (M)168,287.19177,050.29186,174.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,554,124.495,843,340.646,144,481.37
Equity Value (M)6,339,263.816,653,538.846,980,441.61
Shares Outstanding (M)15,586.9115,586.9115,586.91
Fair Value$406.70$426.87$447.84
Upside / Downside23.24%29.35%35.71%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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