Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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NewMed Energy - Limited Partnership (NWMD.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.30 - $75.50$28.51
Multi-Stage$8.22 - $8.98$8.59
Blended Fair Value$18.55
Current Price$5.26
Upside252.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.13%9.59%0.210.220.170.200.080.160.050.670.040.09
YoY Growth---3.95%30.69%-15.72%138.70%-46.68%202.97%-92.14%1,456.91%-49.91%-0.01%
Dividend Yield--6.37%8.78%5.82%6.86%5.86%18.94%1.69%21.61%1.18%2.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)445.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)245.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)200.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.1255.7033.42
Cash Retained (M)200.20200.20200.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.12-55.70-33.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)111.08144.50166.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,173.821,173.821,173.82
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$14.30$28.51$75.50
Upside / Downside171.82%441.99%1,335.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)445.60474.56505.41538.26573.25610.51628.83
Payout Ratio55.07%62.06%69.04%76.03%83.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)245.40294.50348.95409.23475.88549.46581.66

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.74%7.74%7.74%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)270.78273.34275.91
Year 2 PV (M)294.99300.61306.28
Year 3 PV (M)318.08327.21336.52
Year 4 PV (M)340.08353.16366.62
Year 5 PV (M)361.03378.47396.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,061.708,451.088,855.37
Equity Value (M)9,646.6710,083.8810,537.27
Shares Outstanding (M)1,173.821,173.821,173.82
Fair Value$8.22$8.59$8.98
Upside / Downside56.24%63.32%70.66%

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