Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Novonesis (Novozymes) B (NSISBC.XD)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$292.77 - $929.71$471.59
Multi-Stage$306.30 - $335.45$320.60
Blended Fair Value$396.10
Current Price$453.50
Upside-12.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS5.31%0.00%4.987.564.083.923.963.850.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---34.08%85.37%4.03%-1.15%3.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.24%1.91%1.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,212.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,888.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,324.48
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)842.52526.57315.94
Cash Retained (M)1,324.481,324.481,324.48
(-) Cash Required (M)-842.52-526.57-315.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)481.96797.911,008.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)373.91373.91373.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.292.132.70
LTM Dividend per Share7.727.727.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.292.132.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.019.8610.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.31%4.31%5.31%
Fair Value$292.77$471.59$929.71
Upside / Downside-35.44%3.99%105.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,212.594,394.024,583.254,780.644,986.535,201.285,357.32
Payout Ratio68.56%72.85%77.14%81.42%85.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,888.113,200.923,535.313,892.574,274.044,681.154,955.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate3.31%4.31%5.31%
Year 1 PV (M)2,977.103,005.923,034.74
Year 2 PV (M)3,058.203,117.703,177.76
Year 3 PV (M)3,131.803,223.633,317.24
Year 4 PV (M)3,198.283,323.923,453.23
Year 5 PV (M)3,257.983,418.753,585.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)98,905.30103,785.85108,857.19
Equity Value (M)114,528.67119,875.77125,425.97
Shares Outstanding (M)373.91373.91373.91
Fair Value$306.30$320.60$335.45
Upside / Downside-32.46%-29.30%-26.03%

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