Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Aurubis AG (NDA.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CopperSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.15 - $243.88$189.94
Multi-Stage$149.15 - $163.24$156.06
Blended Fair Value$173.00
Current Price$106.20
Upside62.90%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.27%3.56%1.511.401.801.601.301.291.601.521.321.42
YoY Growth--7.86%-22.13%12.50%23.08%1.00%-19.35%4.70%15.34%-6.60%32.87%
Dividend Yield--1.42%1.83%2.42%2.10%1.48%2.02%2.92%3.57%1.68%2.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)539.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)66.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)473.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)107.8067.3840.43
Cash Retained (M)473.00473.00473.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-107.80-67.38-40.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)365.20405.63432.58
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.6543.6543.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.379.299.91
LTM Dividend per Share1.511.511.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.379.299.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.8810.8111.42
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Fair Value$147.15$189.94$243.88
Upside / Downside38.56%78.85%129.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)539.00561.38584.69608.96634.25660.58680.40
Payout Ratio12.24%27.80%43.35%58.90%74.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)66.00156.04253.44358.67472.19594.52629.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.08%10.08%10.08%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)140.39141.76143.12
Year 2 PV (M)205.17209.16213.20
Year 3 PV (M)261.23268.91276.73
Year 4 PV (M)309.43321.61334.14
Year 5 PV (M)350.54367.86385.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,243.365,502.505,771.77
Equity Value (M)6,510.136,811.797,124.82
Shares Outstanding (M)43.6543.6543.65
Fair Value$149.15$156.06$163.24
Upside / Downside40.45%46.95%53.71%

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