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Definitive Analysis

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Newcrest Mining Limited (NCM.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.68 - $257.49$125.40
Multi-Stage$36.40 - $39.87$38.10
Blended Fair Value$81.75
Current Price$26.42
Upside209.43%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS29.89%6.57%0.530.410.270.200.150.140.120.040.030.02
YoY Growth--28.23%55.00%35.59%35.11%1.55%16.22%246.88%32.25%50.91%-93.65%
Dividend Yield--2.01%2.45%1.06%0.63%0.42%0.66%0.61%0.16%0.21%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,171.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)449.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)721.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)234.21146.3887.83
Cash Retained (M)721.46721.46721.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-234.21-146.38-87.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)487.25575.08633.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)896.63896.63896.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.640.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.640.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.041.141.21
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.57%5.57%6.57%
Fair Value$55.68$125.40$257.49
Upside / Downside110.77%374.64%874.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,171.071,236.251,305.061,377.691,454.371,535.321,581.38
Payout Ratio38.39%48.71%59.04%69.36%79.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)449.61602.23770.45955.531,158.821,381.791,462.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate4.57%5.57%6.57%
Year 1 PV (M)559.97565.33570.68
Year 2 PV (M)666.12678.92691.84
Year 3 PV (M)768.16790.41813.09
Year 4 PV (M)866.22899.84934.42
Year 5 PV (M)960.411,007.221,055.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,819.1630,223.8131,682.70
Equity Value (M)32,640.0534,165.5335,748.58
Shares Outstanding (M)896.63896.63896.63
Fair Value$36.40$38.10$39.87
Upside / Downside37.79%44.23%50.91%

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