DDM Analysis: MTSA3.SA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$279.90 - $912.10	$854.77
Multi-Stage	$122.04 - $133.44	$127.64
Blended Fair Value	$491.20
Current Price	$44.80
Upside	996.44%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	27.38%	9.61%	2.57	3.71	1.77	1.77	0.72	0.77	0.63	0.53	0.53	0.53
YoY Growth	-	-	-30.66%	109.93%	-0.02%	145.56%	-6.17%	22.41%	18.01%	0.00%	0.00%	-48.30%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.85%	7.62%	4.31%	4.48%	2.28%	4.43%	3.72%	3.02%	3.93%	5.29%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	41.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	22.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)	19.02

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	8.21	5.13	3.08
Cash Retained (M)	19.02	19.02	19.02
(-) Cash Required (M)	-8.21	-5.13	-3.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)	10.81	13.89	15.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8.95	8.95	8.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.21	1.55	1.78
LTM Dividend per Share	2.46	2.46	2.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.21	1.55	1.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend	3.67	4.01	4.24
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$279.90	$854.77	$912.10
Upside / Downside	524.79%	1,807.97%	1,935.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	41.03	43.70	46.54	49.56	52.78	56.21	57.90
Payout Ratio	53.64%	60.91%	68.18%	75.46%	82.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	22.01	26.62	31.73	37.40	43.67	50.59	53.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.88%	6.88%	6.88%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	24.67	24.90	25.14
Year 2 PV (M)	27.26	27.78	28.30
Year 3 PV (M)	29.77	30.63	31.50
Year 4 PV (M)	32.22	33.46	34.73
Year 5 PV (M)	34.60	36.27	38.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)	943.27	988.83	1,036.13
Equity Value (M)	1,091.79	1,141.87	1,193.81
Shares Outstanding (M)	8.95	8.95	8.95
Fair Value	$122.04	$127.64	$133.44
Upside / Downside	172.41%	184.91%	197.87%

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METISA Metalúrgica Timboense S.A. (MTSA3.SA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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