Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

MFC-Nichada Thani Property Fund 2 (MNIT.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - ResidentialSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.90 - $1.28$1.08
Multi-Stage$2.08 - $2.30$2.19
Blended Fair Value$1.63
Current Price$1.93
Upside-15.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.46%-2.62%0.130.090.050.100.080.030.030.080.130.15
YoY Growth--41.30%73.58%-47.00%33.33%163.16%6.34%-64.60%-40.91%-15.94%-10.09%
Dividend Yield--6.57%4.42%3.01%6.10%4.55%3.06%1.75%3.98%6.34%5.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)19.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.87
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.802.381.43
Cash Retained (M)14.8714.8714.87
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.80-2.38-1.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.0712.4913.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)138.00138.00138.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.13
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-4.62%-3.62%-2.62%
Fair Value$0.90$1.08$1.28
Upside / Downside-53.57%-43.90%-33.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)19.0118.3217.6617.0216.4015.8116.29
Payout Ratio21.78%35.42%49.07%62.71%76.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4.146.498.6710.6712.5314.2315.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-4.62%-3.62%-2.62%
Year 1 PV (M)6.006.066.12
Year 2 PV (M)7.407.557.71
Year 3 PV (M)8.428.698.96
Year 4 PV (M)9.139.529.92
Year 5 PV (M)9.5810.0910.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)246.59259.79273.55
Equity Value (M)287.11301.70316.89
Shares Outstanding (M)138.00138.00138.00
Fair Value$2.08$2.19$2.30
Upside / Downside7.80%13.28%18.98%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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