Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Megacable Holdings, S. A. B. de C. V. (MEGACPO.MX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: EntertainmentSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$50.44 - $100.84$70.08
Multi-Stage$40.02 - $43.79$41.87
Blended Fair Value$55.98
Current Price$52.51
Upside6.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.63%0.00%3.082.962.982.671.892.231.851.731.361.14
YoY Growth--4.16%-0.81%11.48%41.74%-15.58%20.50%7.10%27.14%19.30%0.00%
Dividend Yield--7.20%6.07%6.47%4.46%2.58%3.44%2.05%2.09%1.88%1.59%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,514.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,508.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)503.00314.37188.62
Cash Retained (M)2,508.272,508.272,508.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-503.00-314.37-188.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,005.282,193.902,319.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)858.48858.48858.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.342.562.70
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.342.562.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.342.562.71
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate4.81%5.81%6.81%
Fair Value$50.44$70.08$100.84
Upside / Downside-3.95%33.46%92.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,514.982,661.092,815.692,979.283,152.363,335.503,435.57
Payout Ratio0.27%18.21%36.16%54.11%72.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.71484.671,018.161,611.992,271.383,001.953,177.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.68%9.68%9.68%
Growth Rate4.81%5.81%6.81%
Year 1 PV (M)437.72441.90446.08
Year 2 PV (M)830.45846.37862.44
Year 3 PV (M)1,187.431,221.741,256.71
Year 4 PV (M)1,511.071,569.571,629.76
Year 5 PV (M)1,803.631,891.331,982.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)28,583.3829,973.2431,416.64
Equity Value (M)34,353.6935,944.1637,594.04
Shares Outstanding (M)858.48858.48858.48
Fair Value$40.02$41.87$43.79
Upside / Downside-23.79%-20.26%-16.60%

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