Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

MAG Silver Corp. (MAG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SilverSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.09 - $12.04$9.97
Multi-Stage$15.29 - $16.82$16.04
Blended Fair Value$13.01
Current Price$21.13
Upside-38.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)104.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)64.69
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.8013.007.80
Cash Retained (M)64.6964.6964.69
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.80-13.00-7.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)43.8951.6956.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)104.40104.40104.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.500.54
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.500.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.09$9.97$12.04
Upside / Downside-61.71%-52.81%-43.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)104.01102.97101.94100.9299.9198.91101.88
Payout Ratio37.80%48.24%58.68%69.12%79.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.3249.6759.8269.7679.4989.0294.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.65%7.65%7.65%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)45.6746.1446.61
Year 2 PV (M)50.5851.6152.66
Year 3 PV (M)54.2355.9157.62
Year 4 PV (M)56.8359.1861.61
Year 5 PV (M)58.5261.5764.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,331.011,400.311,472.48
Equity Value (M)1,596.831,674.731,755.72
Shares Outstanding (M)104.40104.40104.40
Fair Value$15.29$16.04$16.82
Upside / Downside-27.62%-24.09%-20.41%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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