Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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PT Lippo General Insurance Tbk (LPGI.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$206.42 - $280.12$244.01
Multi-Stage$309.72 - $340.54$324.82
Blended Fair Value$284.42
Current Price$460.00
Upside-38.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-30.14%-10.66%2.705.4233.3213.9410.6916.2412.248.508.259.00
YoY Growth---50.18%-83.72%138.95%30.37%-34.15%32.65%44.12%3.00%-8.31%7.77%
Dividend Yield--0.71%1.42%5.29%2.76%6.50%8.90%7.65%4.25%2.89%3.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)124,396.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17,997.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)106,399.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)24,879.3615,549.609,329.76
Cash Retained (M)106,399.19106,399.19106,399.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-24,879.36-15,549.60-9,329.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)81,519.8490,849.5997,069.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,000.003,000.003,000.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share27.1730.2832.36
LTM Dividend per Share6.006.006.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share27.1730.2832.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend33.1736.2838.36
WACC / Discount Rate10.99%10.99%10.99%
Growth Rate-4.38%-3.38%-2.38%
Fair Value$206.42$244.01$280.12
Upside / Downside-55.13%-46.95%-39.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)124,396.79120,194.86116,134.86112,212.01108,421.66104,759.34107,902.12
Payout Ratio14.47%29.57%44.68%59.79%74.89%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17,997.6035,546.8151,889.9167,088.3781,200.8694,283.4199,809.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.99%10.99%10.99%
Growth Rate-4.38%-3.38%-2.38%
Year 1 PV (M)31,695.8032,027.2732,358.74
Year 2 PV (M)41,255.8242,123.2342,999.65
Year 3 PV (M)47,560.9749,068.7850,608.13
Year 4 PV (M)51,329.2953,510.3855,760.25
Year 5 PV (M)53,142.3855,979.8858,937.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)704,166.04741,764.49780,952.09
Equity Value (M)929,150.30974,474.031,021,616.18
Shares Outstanding (M)3,000.003,000.003,000.00
Fair Value$309.72$324.82$340.54
Upside / Downside-32.67%-29.39%-25.97%

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