Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Krones AG (KRN.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$263.19 - $1,006.55$444.35
Multi-Stage$242.59 - $265.98$254.07
Blended Fair Value$349.21
Current Price$124.00
Upside181.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.29%0.96%2.201.751.400.060.751.701.701.561.451.25
YoY Growth--25.71%25.00%2,232.81%-92.00%-55.88%0.00%9.18%7.38%16.00%-37.50%
Dividend Yield--1.76%1.38%1.36%0.08%1.08%3.49%2.08%1.42%1.38%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)289.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)82.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)207.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.9236.2021.72
Cash Retained (M)207.51207.51207.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.92-36.20-21.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)149.59171.31185.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)31.5631.5631.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.745.435.89
LTM Dividend per Share2.602.602.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.745.435.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.348.038.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.65%4.65%5.65%
Fair Value$263.19$444.35$1,006.55
Upside / Downside112.25%258.34%711.74%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)289.62303.08317.17331.91347.34363.49374.39
Payout Ratio28.35%40.68%53.01%65.34%77.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)82.11123.29168.13216.87269.78327.14346.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.65%4.65%5.65%
Year 1 PV (M)114.62115.72116.83
Year 2 PV (M)145.31148.12150.97
Year 3 PV (M)174.25179.34184.53
Year 4 PV (M)201.51209.40217.52
Year 5 PV (M)227.16238.33249.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,794.287,128.427,475.58
Equity Value (M)7,657.128,019.348,395.36
Shares Outstanding (M)31.5631.5631.56
Fair Value$242.59$254.07$265.98
Upside / Downside95.64%104.89%114.50%

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