Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kri-Kri Milk Industry S.A. (KRI.AT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$87.53 - $167.03$156.53
Multi-Stage$26.17 - $28.64$27.38
Blended Fair Value$91.96
Current Price$18.92
Upside386.02%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.46%0.00%0.350.200.200.210.170.150.100.080.050.05
YoY Growth--75.10%-0.01%-5.27%25.02%12.48%51.70%26.69%43.99%-0.12%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.19%1.77%3.16%2.93%2.26%3.52%2.03%2.06%2.78%3.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)27.68
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)16.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)5.543.462.08
Cash Retained (M)16.1016.1016.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-5.54-3.46-2.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.5712.6514.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.9532.9532.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.380.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.78
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$87.53$156.53$167.03
Upside / Downside362.63%727.33%782.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)27.6829.4731.3933.4335.6037.9239.06
Payout Ratio41.81%51.45%61.09%70.72%80.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.5715.1619.1823.6428.6134.1336.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)14.1314.2614.40
Year 2 PV (M)16.6516.9717.29
Year 3 PV (M)19.1319.6820.24
Year 4 PV (M)21.5722.4023.25
Year 5 PV (M)23.9725.1326.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)766.78803.81842.26
Equity Value (M)862.23902.25943.77
Shares Outstanding (M)32.9532.9532.95
Fair Value$26.17$27.38$28.64
Upside / Downside38.30%44.72%51.38%

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