Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kion Group AG (KGX.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$69.83 - $404.56$130.03
Multi-Stage$66.33 - $72.75$69.48
Blended Fair Value$99.75
Current Price$57.45
Upside73.64%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.29%10.28%0.700.191.500.410.041.080.890.660.580.41
YoY Growth--268.67%-87.34%266.29%1,042.55%-96.68%21.15%34.41%14.34%39.96%57.39%
Dividend Yield--1.83%0.39%4.21%0.68%0.04%2.76%1.82%0.88%0.95%0.81%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)271.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)107.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)164.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.3633.9820.39
Cash Retained (M)164.30164.30164.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.36-33.98-20.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)109.94130.33143.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)131.11131.11131.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.840.991.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.840.991.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.811.92
WACC / Discount Rate5.95%5.95%5.95%
Growth Rate3.49%4.49%5.49%
Fair Value$69.83$130.03$404.56
Upside / Downside21.56%126.33%604.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)271.80284.00296.74310.06323.98338.52348.67
Payout Ratio39.55%49.64%59.73%69.82%79.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)107.50140.98177.25216.49258.89304.67322.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.95%5.95%5.95%
Growth Rate3.49%4.49%5.49%
Year 1 PV (M)131.79133.07134.34
Year 2 PV (M)154.90157.91160.95
Year 3 PV (M)176.87182.05187.32
Year 4 PV (M)197.73205.49213.47
Year 5 PV (M)217.53228.25239.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,817.818,202.908,603.01
Equity Value (M)8,696.649,109.669,538.47
Shares Outstanding (M)131.11131.11131.11
Fair Value$66.33$69.48$72.75
Upside / Downside15.46%20.94%26.63%

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