Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Johnson Controls International plc (JCI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$45.49 - $93.35$63.82
Multi-Stage$62.04 - $68.01$64.97
Blended Fair Value$64.40
Current Price$109.95
Upside-41.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.32%4.04%1.491.521.491.391.161.201.401.451.071.39
YoY Growth---2.40%2.04%6.99%20.21%-3.54%-14.13%-3.56%35.90%-23.28%39.27%
Dividend Yield--1.35%1.93%2.59%2.18%1.43%2.58%3.44%4.90%2.80%3.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,721.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)976.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)745.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)344.20215.13129.08
Cash Retained (M)745.00745.00745.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-344.20-215.13-129.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)400.80529.88615.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)656.95656.95656.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.810.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.810.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.102.292.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Fair Value$45.49$63.82$93.35
Upside / Downside-58.62%-41.95%-15.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,721.001,773.271,827.131,882.621,939.801,998.712,058.67
Payout Ratio56.71%63.37%70.03%76.68%83.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)976.001,123.701,279.481,443.681,616.671,798.841,904.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.04%3.04%4.04%
Year 1 PV (M)1,042.551,052.771,062.99
Year 2 PV (M)1,101.351,123.041,144.95
Year 3 PV (M)1,152.951,187.181,222.08
Year 4 PV (M)1,197.871,245.521,294.58
Year 5 PV (M)1,236.591,298.391,362.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,023.6436,773.8338,593.30
Equity Value (M)40,754.9542,680.7344,680.52
Shares Outstanding (M)656.95656.95656.95
Fair Value$62.04$64.97$68.01
Upside / Downside-43.58%-40.91%-38.14%

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