Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Isrotel Ltd. (ISRO.TA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel LodgingSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.54 - $148.86$104.40
Multi-Stage$83.43 - $91.45$87.36
Blended Fair Value$95.88
Current Price$124.50
Upside-22.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.930.850.000.000.580.420.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%9.98%0.00%0.00%-100.00%40.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%1.05%1.16%0.00%0.00%1.49%0.76%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)254.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)56.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)197.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)50.8931.8019.08
Cash Retained (M)197.89197.89197.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-50.89-31.80-19.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)147.00166.08178.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)55.6855.6855.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.642.983.21
LTM Dividend per Share1.021.021.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.642.983.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.664.004.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.83%7.83%7.83%
Growth Rate2.85%3.85%4.85%
Fair Value$75.54$104.40$148.86
Upside / Downside-39.32%-16.14%19.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)254.43264.23274.41284.98295.95307.35316.57
Payout Ratio22.22%35.78%49.33%62.89%76.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)56.5594.54135.38179.22226.24276.62292.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.83%7.83%7.83%
Growth Rate2.85%3.85%4.85%
Year 1 PV (M)86.8387.6888.52
Year 2 PV (M)114.20116.44118.69
Year 3 PV (M)138.86142.95147.12
Year 4 PV (M)161.00167.36173.89
Year 5 PV (M)180.80189.76199.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,963.964,160.454,364.65
Equity Value (M)4,645.664,864.635,091.95
Shares Outstanding (M)55.6855.6855.68
Fair Value$83.43$87.36$91.45
Upside / Downside-32.99%-29.83%-26.55%

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