Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Iberdrola, S.A. (IBE.MC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Diversified UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$36.28 - $172.58$79.39
Multi-Stage$18.98 - $20.78$19.86
Blended Fair Value$49.62
Current Price$16.11
Upside208.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS37.65%24.15%0.260.150.140.090.090.050.020.030.030.03
YoY Growth--71.34%6.63%56.14%1.42%70.82%130.56%-23.72%0.19%-0.22%0.11%
Dividend Yield--1.73%1.32%1.23%0.92%0.81%0.58%0.29%0.50%0.44%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,448.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)479.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,969.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,089.62681.01408.61
Cash Retained (M)4,969.104,969.104,969.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,089.62-681.01-408.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,879.484,288.094,560.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,278.296,278.296,278.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.620.680.73
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.620.680.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.760.80
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$36.28$79.39$172.58
Upside / Downside125.22%392.80%971.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,448.105,802.236,179.376,581.037,008.807,464.377,688.30
Payout Ratio8.79%25.03%41.28%57.52%73.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)479.001,452.512,550.553,785.205,169.586,717.937,111.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.52%7.52%7.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,338.251,350.941,363.62
Year 2 PV (M)2,165.072,206.312,247.94
Year 3 PV (M)2,960.383,045.363,131.95
Year 4 PV (M)3,725.053,868.314,015.65
Year 5 PV (M)4,459.974,675.394,899.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)104,488.07109,534.88114,774.85
Equity Value (M)119,136.79124,681.19130,433.07
Shares Outstanding (M)6,278.296,278.296,278.29
Fair Value$18.98$19.86$20.78
Upside / Downside17.79%23.27%28.96%

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