Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Rederiaktiebolaget Gotland (publ) (GOTL-A.ST)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$227.47 - $322.80$274.47
Multi-Stage$332.20 - $363.01$347.32
Blended Fair Value$310.89
Current Price$2,700.00
Upside-88.49%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820032001
DPS5.78%0.00%9.808.208.208.000.007.407.005.088.240.00
YoY Growth--19.51%0.00%2.50%0.00%-100.00%5.71%37.76%-38.33%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.46%0.38%0.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.12%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)85.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)17.0410.656.39
Cash Retained (M)34.4034.4034.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-17.04-10.65-6.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.3623.7528.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2.502.502.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share6.949.5011.20
LTM Dividend per Share20.3220.3220.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share6.949.5011.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend27.2629.8231.52
WACC / Discount Rate10.74%10.74%10.74%
Growth Rate-1.11%-0.11%0.89%
Fair Value$227.47$274.47$322.80
Upside / Downside-91.58%-89.83%-88.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)85.2085.1085.0184.9184.8284.7287.26
Payout Ratio59.62%65.70%71.77%77.85%83.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.8055.9161.0166.1071.1876.2580.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.74%10.74%10.74%
Growth Rate-1.11%-0.11%0.89%
Year 1 PV (M)49.9850.4951.00
Year 2 PV (M)48.7649.7550.75
Year 3 PV (M)47.2348.6850.15
Year 4 PV (M)45.4747.3349.26
Year 5 PV (M)43.5445.7848.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)595.55626.28658.26
Equity Value (M)830.53868.31907.54
Shares Outstanding (M)2.502.502.50
Fair Value$332.20$347.32$363.01
Upside / Downside-87.70%-87.14%-86.56%

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