Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Experian plc (EXPN.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$62.75 - $178.61$98.01
Multi-Stage$60.89 - $66.69$63.74
Blended Fair Value$80.88
Current Price$46.09
Upside75.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS5.09%3.72%0.590.550.520.480.460.460.450.430.420.42
YoY Growth--7.06%5.59%8.30%4.21%0.47%3.65%4.85%2.35%0.00%1.06%
Dividend Yield--1.29%1.30%1.60%1.25%1.35%1.66%1.63%1.97%2.03%2.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,382.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,055.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,327.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)476.47297.80178.68
Cash Retained (M)1,327.361,327.361,327.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-476.47-297.80-178.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)850.891,029.571,148.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)921.50921.50921.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.921.121.25
LTM Dividend per Share1.141.141.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.921.121.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.072.262.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate3.57%4.57%5.57%
Fair Value$62.75$98.01$178.61
Upside / Downside36.16%112.66%287.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,382.362,491.302,605.232,724.362,848.942,979.223,068.60
Payout Ratio44.28%53.43%62.57%71.71%80.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,055.001,331.031,630.101,953.742,303.562,681.302,838.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate3.57%4.57%5.57%
Year 1 PV (M)1,232.211,244.111,256.01
Year 2 PV (M)1,397.051,424.151,451.52
Year 3 PV (M)1,550.101,595.441,641.65
Year 4 PV (M)1,691.971,758.271,826.50
Year 5 PV (M)1,823.211,912.942,006.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)48,416.2450,799.1153,274.90
Equity Value (M)56,110.7958,734.0361,456.75
Shares Outstanding (M)921.50921.50921.50
Fair Value$60.89$63.74$66.69
Upside / Downside32.11%38.29%44.70%

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