Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Enerplus Corporation (ERF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.24 - $245.09$96.40
Multi-Stage$42.27 - $46.33$44.26
Blended Fair Value$70.33
Current Price$19.62
Upside258.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS10.67%-11.80%0.230.190.150.090.100.140.110.120.450.93
YoY Growth--16.84%28.85%62.26%-6.73%-27.15%26.90%-12.48%-72.27%-52.28%16.77%
Dividend Yield--1.16%1.35%1.19%1.48%4.81%1.19%0.74%1.15%8.72%7.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)384.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)334.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)76.9548.0928.85
Cash Retained (M)334.84334.84334.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-76.95-48.09-28.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)257.89286.75305.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)213.40213.40213.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.211.341.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.211.341.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.441.581.67
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Fair Value$55.24$96.40$245.09
Upside / Downside181.57%391.33%1,149.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)384.73405.17426.70449.38473.26498.41513.36
Payout Ratio12.97%28.37%43.78%59.19%74.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49.89114.96186.81265.97353.02448.57474.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.04%7.04%7.04%
Growth Rate4.31%5.31%6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)106.38107.40108.42
Year 2 PV (M)159.97163.05166.16
Year 3 PV (M)210.76216.88223.12
Year 4 PV (M)258.87268.94279.30
Year 5 PV (M)304.39319.26334.71
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,980.648,370.578,775.60
Equity Value (M)9,021.029,446.119,887.32
Shares Outstanding (M)213.40213.40213.40
Fair Value$42.27$44.26$46.33
Upside / Downside115.45%125.61%136.14%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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