Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Consolidated Water Co. Ltd. (CWCO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$176.81 - $208.33$195.23
Multi-Stage$47.09 - $51.64$49.33
Blended Fair Value$122.28
Current Price$30.02
Upside307.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.28%3.61%0.390.340.320.320.320.320.320.280.280.28
YoY Growth--14.83%6.36%-0.12%0.35%0.71%0.09%14.07%0.70%0.36%0.23%
Dividend Yield--1.60%1.28%1.96%2.91%2.38%1.94%2.46%1.92%2.38%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.382.111.27
Cash Retained (M)11.6211.6211.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.38-2.11-1.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)8.249.5110.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)16.0216.0216.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.590.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.97
WACC / Discount Rate5.26%5.26%5.26%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Fair Value$176.81$195.23$208.33
Upside / Downside488.97%550.33%593.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16.8817.8718.9220.0321.2022.4523.12
Payout Ratio31.17%42.93%54.70%66.47%78.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5.267.6710.3513.3116.5920.2021.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.26%5.26%5.26%
Growth Rate4.87%5.87%6.87%
Year 1 PV (M)7.227.297.36
Year 2 PV (M)9.169.349.52
Year 3 PV (M)11.0911.4111.74
Year 4 PV (M)13.0113.5114.03
Year 5 PV (M)14.9115.6316.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)698.90732.86768.14
Equity Value (M)754.30790.05827.17
Shares Outstanding (M)16.0216.0216.02
Fair Value$47.09$49.33$51.64
Upside / Downside56.87%64.31%72.03%

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