DDM Analysis: CRSN.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$87.84 - $135.78	$110.09
Multi-Stage	$195.91 - $215.86	$205.69
Blended Fair Value	$157.89
Current Price	$105.00
Upside	50.37%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020
DPS	0.00%	0.00%	2.35	0.00	3.72	0.73	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-100.00%	411.90%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.18%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	27,376.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	6,796.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)	20,580.63

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	5,475.37	3,422.10	2,053.26
Cash Retained (M)	20,580.63	20,580.63	20,580.63
(-) Cash Required (M)	-5,475.37	-3,422.10	-2,053.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)	15,105.26	17,158.53	18,527.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,892.00	2,892.00	2,892.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.22	5.93	6.41
LTM Dividend per Share	2.35	2.35	2.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.22	5.93	6.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend	7.57	8.28	8.76
WACC / Discount Rate	6.45%	6.45%	6.45%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$87.84	$110.09	$135.78
Upside / Downside	-16.34%	4.84%	29.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	27,376.83	27,103.06	26,832.03	26,563.71	26,298.07	26,035.09	26,816.14
Payout Ratio	24.82%	37.86%	50.89%	63.93%	76.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	6,796.20	10,261.14	13,656.10	16,982.14	20,240.29	23,431.58	24,804.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.45%	6.45%	6.45%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	9,542.12	9,639.49	9,736.86
Year 2 PV (M)	11,809.33	12,051.57	12,296.26
Year 3 PV (M)	13,656.52	14,078.86	14,509.82
Year 4 PV (M)	15,136.09	15,763.41	16,410.03
Year 5 PV (M)	16,294.76	17,143.26	18,026.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	500,137.69	526,181.02	553,298.14
Equity Value (M)	566,576.52	594,857.62	624,277.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,892.00	2,892.00	2,892.00
Fair Value	$195.91	$205.69	$215.86
Upside / Downside	86.58%	95.90%	105.58%

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PT Carsurin Tbk (CRSN.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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