Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Colbún S.A. (COLBUN.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.10 - $0.15$0.13
Multi-Stage$0.16 - $0.17$0.16
Blended Fair Value$0.14
Current Price$0.16
Upside-10.10%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.20%22.26%0.010.020.010.070.010.020.020.010.010.00
YoY Growth---55.82%100.79%-87.80%415.81%-30.31%19.13%80.53%62.76%84.98%196.15%
Dividend Yield--5.49%13.71%6.59%86.81%7.09%18.24%7.24%3.84%2.55%1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)255.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)132.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)122.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.0431.9019.14
Cash Retained (M)122.83122.83122.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.04-31.90-19.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)71.7990.93103.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17,536.6117,536.6117,536.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-1.13%-0.13%0.87%
Fair Value$0.10$0.13$0.15
Upside / Downside-35.46%-21.65%-7.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)255.19254.84254.50254.16253.81253.47261.08
Payout Ratio51.87%59.49%67.12%74.75%82.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)132.36151.61170.82189.97209.08228.12241.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate-1.13%-0.13%0.87%
Year 1 PV (M)136.46137.84139.22
Year 2 PV (M)138.37141.19144.03
Year 3 PV (M)138.51142.75147.08
Year 4 PV (M)137.19142.83148.64
Year 5 PV (M)134.73141.68148.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,039.152,144.382,253.92
Equity Value (M)2,724.412,850.672,981.81
Shares Outstanding (M)17,536.6117,536.6117,536.61
Fair Value$0.16$0.16$0.17
Upside / Downside-3.04%1.45%6.12%

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