Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Sector

Canadian National Railway Company (CNI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$112.60 - $223.08$155.94
Multi-Stage$173.42 - $190.34$181.72
Blended Fair Value$168.83
Current Price$131.26
Upside28.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.73%10.08%3.413.303.202.772.612.462.131.981.851.59
YoY Growth--3.24%3.34%15.17%6.49%5.83%15.83%7.59%6.90%16.37%21.76%
Dividend Yield--2.43%1.86%2.00%1.65%1.79%2.26%1.76%2.10%1.88%1.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,296.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,176.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,120.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)859.36537.10322.26
Cash Retained (M)2,120.802,120.802,120.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-859.36-537.10-322.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,261.441,583.701,798.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)627.05627.05627.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.012.532.87
LTM Dividend per Share3.473.473.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.012.532.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.486.006.34
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Fair Value$112.60$155.94$223.08
Upside / Downside-14.22%18.80%69.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,296.804,402.394,510.584,621.434,735.004,851.364,996.90
Payout Ratio50.64%58.51%66.39%74.26%82.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,176.002,576.012,994.373,431.733,888.784,366.224,622.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.40%6.40%6.40%
Growth Rate1.46%2.46%3.46%
Year 1 PV (M)2,397.502,421.132,444.76
Year 2 PV (M)2,593.742,645.122,697.01
Year 3 PV (M)2,766.602,849.212,933.45
Year 4 PV (M)2,917.813,034.563,154.78
Year 5 PV (M)3,049.023,202.273,361.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,016.4099,792.19104,758.12
Equity Value (M)108,741.07113,944.49119,349.75
Shares Outstanding (M)627.05627.05627.05
Fair Value$173.42$181.72$190.34
Upside / Downside32.12%38.44%45.01%

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