DDM Analysis: CMPC.SN

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.32 - $2.15	$1.69
Multi-Stage	$1.45 - $1.58	$1.52
Blended Fair Value	$1.60
Current Price	$1.52
Upside	5.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	4.66%	16.09%	0.10	0.08	0.19	0.20	0.01	0.08	0.05	0.00	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	24.07%	-57.48%	-1.83%	2,840.29%	-91.75%	70.54%	2,390.91%	-86.85%	21.02%	-47.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.21%	4.17%	11.64%	10.64%	0.21%	3.81%	1.34%	0.05%	0.60%	0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	288.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	123.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)	164.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	57.63	36.02	21.61
Cash Retained (M)	164.22	164.22	164.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-57.63	-36.02	-21.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)	106.59	128.20	142.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,499.32	2,499.32	2,499.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.06
LTM Dividend per Share	0.05	0.05	0.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.05	0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.11
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	2.80%	3.80%	4.80%
Fair Value	$1.32	$1.69	$2.15
Upside / Downside	-13.29%	11.22%	41.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	288.13	299.07	310.43	322.22	334.45	347.15	357.57
Payout Ratio	43.01%	52.41%	61.80%	71.20%	80.60%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	123.92	156.73	191.86	229.43	269.57	312.44	330.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.99%	9.99%	9.99%
Growth Rate	2.80%	3.80%	4.80%
Year 1 PV (M)	141.12	142.49	143.87
Year 2 PV (M)	155.55	158.59	161.66
Year 3 PV (M)	167.48	172.42	177.45
Year 4 PV (M)	177.19	184.19	191.39
Year 5 PV (M)	184.91	194.08	203.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,800.16	2,939.03	3,083.36
Equity Value (M)	3,626.41	3,790.80	3,961.33
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,499.32	2,499.32	2,499.32
Fair Value	$1.45	$1.52	$1.58
Upside / Downside	-4.54%	-0.22%	4.27%

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Empresas CMPC S.A. (CMPC.SN)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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