Definitive Analysis
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Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$380.05 - $1,707.40$882.55
Multi-Stage$213.06 - $233.02$222.86
Blended Fair Value$552.70
Current Price$98.96
Upside458.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.14%5.95%3.122.393.152.812.722.552.231.511.861.86
YoY Growth--30.34%-23.92%12.19%3.03%6.86%14.08%48.00%-18.71%0.00%5.99%
Dividend Yield--3.41%3.95%5.19%3.52%4.99%4.73%4.02%2.48%3.35%4.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,129.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,852.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,277.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,625.801,016.13609.68
Cash Retained (M)4,277.004,277.004,277.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,625.80-1,016.13-609.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,651.203,260.883,667.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)944.06944.06944.06
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.813.453.88
LTM Dividend per Share4.084.084.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.813.453.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.897.537.96
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.18%6.18%7.18%
Fair Value$380.05$882.55$1,707.40
Upside / Downside284.04%791.82%1,625.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,129.008,631.559,165.179,731.7810,333.4210,972.2511,301.42
Payout Ratio47.39%55.91%64.43%72.95%81.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,852.004,825.795,905.267,099.768,419.389,875.0310,453.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.09%7.09%7.09%
Growth Rate5.18%6.18%7.18%
Year 1 PV (M)4,463.914,506.354,548.79
Year 2 PV (M)5,052.815,149.345,246.79
Year 3 PV (M)5,619.335,781.135,946.01
Year 4 PV (M)6,164.076,401.856,646.45
Year 5 PV (M)6,687.647,011.657,348.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)173,151.21181,540.23190,251.29
Equity Value (M)201,138.97210,390.56219,987.43
Shares Outstanding (M)944.06944.06944.06
Fair Value$213.06$222.86$233.02
Upside / Downside115.30%125.20%135.47%

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