Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $4.46 - $6.37 | $5.40 |
| Multi-Stage | $9.76 - $10.72 | $10.23 |
| Blended Fair Value | $7.81 | |
| Current Price | $5.65 | |
| Upside | 38.29% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -22.30% | -3.29% | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.63 | 1.56 | 0.82 | 0.51 | 0.53 | 0.74 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 22.36% | 67.08% | 168.08% | -87.21% | -59.59% | 89.85% | 59.54% | -3.02% | -28.55% | 20.41% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.13% | 8.15% | 8.01% | 2.67% | 17.82% | 20.97% | 5.81% | 3.30% | 3.37% | 4.40% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,826.16 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 1,334.07 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 492.09 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 365.23 | 228.27 | 136.96 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 492.09 | 492.09 | 492.09 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -365.23 | -228.27 | -136.96 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 126.86 | 263.82 | 355.13 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,707.33 | 2,707.33 | 2,707.33 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.05 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.54 | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.68% | 7.68% | 7.68% |
| Growth Rate | -3.93% | -2.93% | -1.93% |
| Fair Value | $4.46 | $5.40 | $6.37 |
| Upside / Downside | -20.99% | -4.46% | 12.66% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,826.16 | 1,772.67 | 1,720.74 | 1,670.33 | 1,621.39 | 1,573.89 | 1,621.11 |
| Payout Ratio | 73.05% | 76.44% | 79.83% | 83.22% | 86.61% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 1,334.07 | 1,355.07 | 1,373.70 | 1,390.07 | 1,404.30 | 1,416.50 | 1,499.53 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.68% | 7.68% | 7.68% |
| Growth Rate | -3.93% | -2.93% | -1.93% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 1,245.42 | 1,258.39 | 1,271.35 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 1,160.37 | 1,184.66 | 1,209.19 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 1,079.19 | 1,113.24 | 1,148.00 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 1,002.01 | 1,044.39 | 1,088.10 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 928.94 | 978.30 | 1,029.74 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 20,996.62 | 22,112.38 | 23,275.07 |
| Equity Value (M) | 26,412.55 | 27,691.35 | 29,021.45 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 2,707.33 | 2,707.33 | 2,707.33 |
| Fair Value | $9.76 | $10.23 | $10.72 |
| Upside / Downside | 72.67% | 81.03% | 89.73% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0R28.L | Newmont Corporation | 2.49% | $1.01 | 15.53% |
| ETR | Entergy Corporation | 2.49% | $2.34 | 57.35% |
| NKE | NIKE, Inc. | 2.49% | $1.58 | 80.59% |
| OTTR | Otter Tail Corporation | 2.49% | $2.03 | 30.69% |
| FHN | First Horizon Corporation | 2.48% | $0.60 | 34.42% |
| PWP | Perella Weinberg Partners | 2.48% | $0.44 | 69.65% |
| SCS | Steelcase Inc. | 2.48% | $0.40 | 50.05% |
| PBI | Pitney Bowes Inc. | 2.46% | $0.25 | 61.37% |
| RBCAA | Republic Bancorp, Inc. | 2.45% | $1.67 | 25.85% |
| SRCE | 1st Source Corporation | 2.45% | $1.53 | 25.20% |
| TRMK | Trustmark Corporation | 2.45% | $0.96 | 26.11% |
| VOYA | Voya Financial, Inc. | 2.45% | $1.86 | 29.46% |
| AWK | American Water Works Company, Inc. | 2.44% | $3.18 | 55.85% |
| LSTR | Landstar System, Inc. | 2.44% | $3.58 | 90.21% |
| NGL | NGL Energy Partners LP | 2.44% | $0.24 | 24.52% |
| TCFC | The Community Financial Corporation | 2.44% | $0.66 | 12.72% |
| CADE | Cadence Bank | 2.43% | $1.05 | 37.49% |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | 2.43% | $5.04 | 48.70% |
| MBCN | Middlefield Banc Corp. | 2.43% | $0.83 | 42.36% |
| 0L7G.L | Snap-on Incorporated | 2.42% | $8.43 | 44.15% |
| ITW | Illinois Tool Works Inc. | 2.42% | $6.04 | 58.20% |
| MOFG | MidWestOne Financial Group, Inc. | 2.40% | $0.92 | 32.44% |
| FFIN | First Financial Bankshares, Inc. | 2.39% | $0.72 | 42.45% |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | 2.38% | $6.03 | 59.30% |
| CAL | Caleres, Inc. | 2.38% | $0.29 | 46.21% |
| ABM | ABM Industries Incorporated | 2.37% | $1.01 | 54.79% |
| FUNC | First United Corporation | 2.36% | $0.88 | 22.87% |
| HON | Honeywell International Inc. | 2.36% | $4.63 | 48.21% |
| RILYK | B. Riley Financial, Inc. 5.50% Senior Notes Due 2026 | 2.36% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| CDW | CDW Corporation | 2.35% | $3.14 | 39.31% |
| CHMG | Chemung Financial Corporation | 2.35% | $1.28 | 46.47% |
| LZB | La-Z-Boy Incorporated | 2.35% | $0.88 | 40.20% |
| PKG | Packaging Corporation of America | 2.35% | $4.97 | 50.31% |
| UNP | Union Pacific Corporation | 2.35% | $5.44 | 45.77% |
| 0K91.L | Northern Trust Corporation | 2.34% | $3.20 | 35.68% |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | 2.33% | $7.07 | 60.14% |
| MGEE | MGE Energy, Inc. | 2.32% | $1.82 | 49.49% |
| MZTI | The Marzetti Company | 2.32% | $3.82 | 61.80% |
| UNM | Unum Group | 2.32% | $1.79 | 33.52% |
| RILYM | B. Riley Financial, Inc. - 6.37 | 2.31% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| RILYO | B. Riley Financial, Inc. - 6.75 | 2.31% | $0.58 | 56.91% |
| HONIV | Honeywell International Inc. Common Stock Ex Distribution When Issued | 2.30% | $4.63 | 48.21% |
| PGR | The Progressive Corporation | 2.30% | $4.88 | 26.80% |
| WNEB | Western New England Bancorp, Inc. | 2.30% | $0.28 | 43.00% |
| 0R23.L | Halliburton Company | 2.29% | $0.68 | 44.61% |
| ADS | Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. | 2.29% | $1.30 | 21.08% |
| HLNE | Hamilton Lane Incorporated | 2.29% | $3.13 | 74.09% |
| BSVN | Bank7 Corp. | 2.28% | $0.94 | 20.81% |
| MCBC | Macatawa Bank Corporation | 2.28% | $0.34 | 28.37% |
| BRKL | Brookline Bancorp, Inc. | 2.27% | $0.54 | 61.06% |