Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Cameco Corporation (CCJ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: UraniumSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.79 - $61.52$38.12
Multi-Stage$17.98 - $19.66$18.80
Blended Fair Value$28.46
Current Price$116.73
Upside-75.62%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.36%-7.88%0.160.120.120.070.060.060.160.360.360.36
YoY Growth--33.72%0.35%62.99%28.21%1.87%-65.77%-55.01%-0.01%0.00%0.07%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.19%0.34%0.20%0.27%0.52%1.03%3.05%2.47%2.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)525.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)456.34
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)105.2065.7539.45
Cash Retained (M)456.34456.34456.34
(-) Cash Required (M)-105.20-65.75-39.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)351.15390.60416.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)435.70435.70435.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.810.900.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.810.900.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.79$38.12$61.52
Upside / Downside-77.91%-67.35%-47.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)525.98560.17596.58635.36676.66720.64742.26
Payout Ratio13.24%28.59%43.94%59.30%74.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.64160.17262.16376.74505.11648.58686.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.45%9.45%9.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)144.96146.33147.71
Year 2 PV (M)214.75218.84222.97
Year 3 PV (M)279.31287.33295.50
Year 4 PV (M)338.93351.97365.38
Year 5 PV (M)393.89412.91432.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,463.326,775.517,099.63
Equity Value (M)7,835.178,192.898,563.86
Shares Outstanding (M)435.70435.70435.70
Fair Value$17.98$18.80$19.66
Upside / Downside-84.59%-83.89%-83.16%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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