Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC (CCEP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - Non-AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$522.03 - $1,359.39$1,273.95
Multi-Stage$196.94 - $215.38$205.99
Blended Fair Value$739.97
Current Price$78.67
Upside840.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.65%17.27%1.981.831.661.390.841.251.111.060.440.50
YoY Growth--8.20%10.22%19.59%65.28%-32.75%11.89%4.91%139.71%-12.07%25.41%
Dividend Yield--2.67%3.03%3.21%2.82%2.06%2.75%2.79%3.21%1.49%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,146.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,810.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,336.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)629.20393.25235.95
Cash Retained (M)1,336.001,336.001,336.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-629.20-393.25-235.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)706.80942.751,100.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)460.25460.25460.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.542.052.39
LTM Dividend per Share3.933.933.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.542.052.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.475.986.32
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$522.03$1,273.95$1,359.39
Upside / Downside563.56%1,519.36%1,627.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,146.003,350.493,568.273,800.214,047.224,310.294,439.60
Payout Ratio57.53%64.03%70.52%77.01%83.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,810.002,145.212,516.352,926.673,379.703,879.264,106.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,993.402,012.292,031.19
Year 2 PV (M)2,172.802,214.192,255.96
Year 3 PV (M)2,348.272,415.682,484.37
Year 4 PV (M)2,519.862,616.772,716.45
Year 5 PV (M)2,687.652,817.472,952.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)78,920.1482,732.0286,689.78
Equity Value (M)90,642.1394,808.4199,129.99
Shares Outstanding (M)460.25460.25460.25
Fair Value$196.94$205.99$215.38
Upside / Downside150.34%161.84%173.78%

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