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Definitive Analysis

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Keppel Corporation Limited (BN4.SI)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.74 - $3.98$3.34
Multi-Stage$7.54 - $8.31$7.92
Blended Fair Value$5.63
Current Price$7.42
Upside-24.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.79%-2.24%0.330.320.350.190.150.230.290.200.300.48
YoY Growth--4.57%-9.59%86.04%26.61%-34.66%-20.57%44.73%-33.25%-37.57%14.36%
Dividend Yield--4.85%4.31%6.23%5.66%4.26%6.61%6.98%3.92%6.57%12.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)693.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)522.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)171.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)138.6586.6651.99
Cash Retained (M)171.20171.20171.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-138.65-86.66-51.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.5584.54119.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,833.511,833.511,833.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-4.24%-3.24%-2.24%
Fair Value$2.74$3.34$3.98
Upside / Downside-63.13%-55.00%-46.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)693.26670.78649.03627.98607.62587.92605.55
Payout Ratio75.31%78.24%81.18%84.12%87.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)522.06524.84526.90528.27529.00529.12560.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate-4.24%-3.24%-2.24%
Year 1 PV (M)488.43493.53498.63
Year 2 PV (M)456.32465.91475.59
Year 3 PV (M)425.77439.25453.01
Year 4 PV (M)396.78413.61430.98
Year 5 PV (M)369.34389.03409.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,690.4812,313.7912,963.40
Equity Value (M)13,827.1214,515.1215,231.16
Shares Outstanding (M)1,833.511,833.511,833.51
Fair Value$7.54$7.92$8.31
Upside / Downside1.64%6.69%11.96%

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