Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Balanced Commercial Property Trust Ltd (BCPT.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$14.60 - $21.35$17.86
Multi-Stage$24.55 - $27.03$25.76
Blended Fair Value$21.81
Current Price$0.81
Upside2,602.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-6.37%-2.71%0.050.050.050.030.070.070.070.070.070.07
YoY Growth--1.84%1.32%46.82%-52.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%3.51%2.03%
Dividend Yield--6.80%5.45%4.54%4.05%5.89%5.46%5.02%5.02%5.10%4.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,354.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,285.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)271.00169.37101.62
Cash Retained (M)1,285.031,285.031,285.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-271.00-169.37-101.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,014.031,115.651,183.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)702.31702.31702.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.441.591.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.441.591.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.691.78
WACC / Discount Rate8.36%8.36%8.36%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$14.60$17.86$21.35
Upside / Downside1,709.27%2,112.67%2,545.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,354.991,341.441,328.021,314.741,301.591,288.581,327.23
Payout Ratio5.16%22.13%39.10%56.07%73.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.96296.87519.23737.11950.591,159.721,227.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.36%8.36%8.36%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)271.20273.96276.73
Year 2 PV (M)433.32442.20451.18
Year 3 PV (M)561.96579.34597.07
Year 4 PV (M)662.04689.48717.76
Year 5 PV (M)737.86776.28816.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,573.9515,332.8516,123.04
Equity Value (M)17,240.3218,094.1118,982.07
Shares Outstanding (M)702.31702.31702.31
Fair Value$24.55$25.76$27.03
Upside / Downside2,941.87%3,092.51%3,249.18%

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