Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Bakkavor Group plc (BAKK.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.02 - $3.34$2.60
Multi-Stage$2.61 - $2.85$2.73
Blended Fair Value$2.67
Current Price$2.16
Upside23.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.71%0.00%0.070.070.070.070.000.060.020.000.000.01
YoY Growth--7.35%5.15%0.78%0.00%-100.00%200.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.09%8.26%6.85%5.19%0.00%4.22%1.40%0.00%0.00%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)101.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)88.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.10
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)20.2612.667.60
Cash Retained (M)13.1013.1013.10
(-) Cash Required (M)-20.26-12.66-7.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)-7.160.445.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)589.29589.29589.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.000.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate1.98%2.98%3.98%
Fair Value$2.02$2.60$3.34
Upside / Downside-6.62%20.45%54.53%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)101.30104.32107.44110.64113.94117.34120.86
Payout Ratio87.07%87.65%88.24%88.83%89.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)88.2091.4494.8098.28101.88105.61111.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate1.98%2.98%3.98%
Year 1 PV (M)83.1383.9484.76
Year 2 PV (M)78.3479.8881.44
Year 3 PV (M)73.8376.0278.26
Year 4 PV (M)69.5772.3475.19
Year 5 PV (M)65.5668.8472.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,168.851,227.291,288.04
Equity Value (M)1,539.271,608.311,679.93
Shares Outstanding (M)589.29589.29589.29
Fair Value$2.61$2.73$2.85
Upside / Downside20.93%26.35%31.98%

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