DDM Analysis: ASII.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$65,590.43 - $160,490.57	$150,403.16
Multi-Stage	$23,588.44 - $25,805.68	$24,676.74
Blended Fair Value	$87,539.95
Current Price	$5,775.00
Upside	1,415.84%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.71%	9.16%	518.68	649.57	281.82	131.91	183.90	211.00	189.88	167.92	167.89	215.86
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.15%	130.49%	113.65%	-28.27%	-12.84%	11.12%	13.08%	0.01%	-22.22%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	10.54%	12.49%	4.70%	2.01%	3.49%	5.41%	2.61%	2.30%	1.95%	2.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	32,670,000.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	16,426,000.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	16,244,000.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	6,534,000.00	4,083,750.00	2,450,250.00
Cash Retained (M)	16,244,000.00	16,244,000.00	16,244,000.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-6,534,000.00	-4,083,750.00	-2,450,250.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9,710,000.00	12,160,250.00	13,793,750.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	40,483.66	40,483.66	40,483.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	239.85	300.37	340.72
LTM Dividend per Share	405.74	405.74	405.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share	239.85	300.37	340.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend	645.59	706.12	746.47
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$65,590.43	$150,403.16	$160,490.57
Upside / Downside	1,035.77%	2,504.38%	2,679.06%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	32,670,000.00	34,793,550.00	37,055,130.75	39,463,714.25	42,028,855.67	44,760,731.29	46,103,553.23
Payout Ratio	50.28%	58.22%	66.17%	74.11%	82.06%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	16,426,000.00	20,257,791.00	24,518,314.98	29,247,117.91	34,487,075.34	40,284,658.16	42,645,786.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.54%	6.54%	6.54%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	18,836,000.94	19,014,541.23	19,193,081.52
Year 2 PV (M)	21,197,461.46	21,601,213.56	22,008,774.65
Year 3 PV (M)	23,511,098.86	24,186,018.01	24,873,731.46
Year 4 PV (M)	25,777,621.03	26,768,955.58	27,788,611.88
Year 5 PV (M)	27,997,726.63	29,350,027.29	30,754,083.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)	837,626,387.30	878,084,055.01	920,090,132.89
Equity Value (M)	954,946,296.21	999,004,810.69	1,044,708,416.09
Shares Outstanding (M)	40,483.66	40,483.66	40,483.66
Fair Value	$23,588.44	$24,676.74	$25,805.68
Upside / Downside	308.46%	327.30%	346.85%

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PT Astra International Tbk (ASII.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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