DDM Analysis: ASBI.JK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$164.18 - $209.84	$188.67
Multi-Stage	$268.59 - $298.60	$283.26
Blended Fair Value	$235.97
Current Price	$442.00
Upside	-46.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-22.90%	-14.13%	2.86	5.20	5.70	10.54	6.00	10.50	10.10	13.10	12.50	10.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-44.96%	-8.79%	-45.93%	75.57%	-42.82%	4.01%	-22.91%	4.76%	25.00%	-23.82%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.70%	0.56%	1.04%	3.61%	2.04%	4.17%	3.28%	4.20%	3.47%	4.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	23,108.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,441.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)	21,667.02

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	4,621.76	2,888.60	1,733.16
Cash Retained (M)	21,667.02	21,667.02	21,667.02
(-) Cash Required (M)	-4,621.76	-2,888.60	-1,733.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	17,045.26	18,778.42	19,933.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	348.39	348.39	348.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share	48.93	53.90	57.22
LTM Dividend per Share	4.14	4.14	4.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	48.93	53.90	57.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	53.06	58.04	61.36
WACC / Discount Rate	10.98%	10.98%	10.98%
Growth Rate	-16.13%	-15.13%	-14.13%
Fair Value	$164.18	$188.67	$209.84
Upside / Downside	-62.86%	-57.31%	-52.52%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	23,108.81	19,612.57	16,645.29	14,126.95	11,989.61	10,175.65	10,480.92
Payout Ratio	6.24%	22.99%	39.74%	56.50%	73.25%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,441.79	4,509.18	6,615.42	7,981.11	8,782.13	9,158.08	9,694.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.98%	10.98%	10.98%
Growth Rate	-16.13%	-15.13%	-14.13%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,015.24	4,063.12	4,110.99
Year 2 PV (M)	5,245.47	5,371.30	5,498.62
Year 3 PV (M)	5,635.13	5,839.11	6,047.95
Year 4 PV (M)	5,521.46	5,789.54	6,067.27
Year 5 PV (M)	5,127.11	5,440.14	5,768.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)	68,027.96	72,181.37	76,535.20
Equity Value (M)	93,572.38	98,684.58	104,028.32
Shares Outstanding (M)	348.39	348.39	348.39
Fair Value	$268.59	$283.26	$298.60
Upside / Downside	-39.23%	-35.91%	-32.44%

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PT Asuransi Bintang Tbk (ASBI.JK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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