Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Dogu Aras Enerji Yatirimlari AS (ARASE.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$575.31 - $1,132.74$1,061.54
Multi-Stage$176.02 - $192.66$184.18
Blended Fair Value$622.86
Current Price$54.05
Upside1,052.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018
DPS21.09%0.00%1.000.560.660.650.490.380.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--79.36%-15.22%1.09%33.40%26.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.48%0.89%1.83%2.77%1.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,423.94
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)594.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)829.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)284.79177.99106.80
Cash Retained (M)829.84829.84829.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-284.79-177.99-106.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)545.06651.85723.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)250.00250.00250.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.182.612.89
LTM Dividend per Share2.382.382.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.182.612.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.564.985.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$575.31$1,061.54$1,132.74
Upside / Downside964.41%1,864.00%1,995.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,423.941,516.491,615.061,720.041,831.851,950.922,009.44
Payout Ratio41.72%51.38%61.03%70.69%80.34%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)594.09779.14985.721,215.881,471.781,755.821,858.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)725.83732.71739.59
Year 2 PV (M)855.47871.76888.21
Year 3 PV (M)983.021,011.241,039.99
Year 4 PV (M)1,108.511,151.141,194.99
Year 5 PV (M)1,231.981,291.481,353.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)39,099.1740,987.6742,948.45
Equity Value (M)44,003.9846,046.0148,164.50
Shares Outstanding (M)250.00250.00250.00
Fair Value$176.02$184.18$192.66
Upside / Downside225.65%240.77%256.44%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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