Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Keyrus S.A. (ALKEY.PA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.36 - $2.01$1.67
Multi-Stage$2.44 - $2.69$2.56
Blended Fair Value$2.12
Current Price$7.80
Upside-72.85%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.030.200.010.020.020.020.010.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%-86.66%2,744.14%-70.79%49.61%-13.61%188.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.40%4.34%0.21%0.84%0.57%0.41%0.11%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)0.530.330.20
Cash Retained (M)2.252.252.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-0.53-0.33-0.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.711.922.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)15.6215.6215.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.36$1.67$2.01
Upside / Downside-82.58%-78.58%-74.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2.672.652.622.592.572.542.62
Payout Ratio15.83%30.66%45.50%60.33%75.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.420.811.191.561.932.292.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.87%7.87%7.87%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)0.740.750.76
Year 2 PV (M)1.001.021.04
Year 3 PV (M)1.211.251.28
Year 4 PV (M)1.371.421.48
Year 5 PV (M)1.491.571.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)32.3534.0335.78
Equity Value (M)38.1640.0442.00
Shares Outstanding (M)15.6215.6215.62
Fair Value$2.44$2.56$2.69
Upside / Downside-68.67%-67.13%-65.52%

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